Dr Muda Yusuf, Director/Chief Executive Officer, Centre for the Promotion of Private Enterprise (CPPE), says the recently presented highlights of the 2026–2028 Medium-Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF) by the Minister of Budget and National Planning, Senator Abubakar Atiku Bagudu, signal a welcome and deliberate shift toward more conservative, realistic, and credible fiscal planning. 

He said the framework responded to heightened global uncertainties, Nigeria’s domestic fiscal pressures, recurring missed revenue targets, the pre-election dynamics expected in 2026, and the longstanding challenges around oil production and oil-price volatility.

He stated, in a CPPE policy brief released on Sunday, that by adopting more cautious revenue and expenditure assumptions, the new MTEF strengthened the foundation for improved budget credibility and more sustainable fiscal outcomes. 

He, however, said the shift—though significant—did not go far enough, particularly regarding crude oil price and output assumptions.

According to him, persistent revenue underperformance—rooted in overly optimistic macroeconomic assumptions—remains one of the most significant weaknesses of Nigeria’s budget process. 

“This has repeatedly resulted in wide gaps between appropriations and actual implementation, weakening fiscal outcomes and undermining public trust.

“The unrealistic assumptions of the 2025 budget were particularly damaging, contributing to implementation shortfalls and widening credibility gaps.

“The emerging shift toward more realistic assumptions in the 2026–2028 MTEF is therefore commendable. It represents an important step toward reducing variances between projected and realised outcomes and toward restoring the budget as a credible governance tool rather than a routine, ceremonial annual document,” Yusuf explained.

He said one major improvement in the new MTEF was the introduction of dual oil production parameters: Technical production target of 2.06 mbpd and Benchmark (budget) production of 1.80 mbpd.

“Using 1.80 mbpd as the revenue basis is significantly more prudent than the 2.06 mbpd used in the 2025 budget, especially given chronic underproduction, vandalism, theft, and operational bottlenecks.

“However, based on historical production trends, the CPPE proposes an even more conservative benchmark of 1.6 mbpd to ensure fiscal resilience,” continued the CPPE boss.

The 2026 oil price benchmark of $64.85 per barrel, down from $75 in the 2025 budget, in his view, also reflects a more cautious approach. But he said nonetheless, even this estimate was still somewhat optimistic, given global forecasts by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) of $55/barrel, $56/barrel and $60/barrel by Goldman Sachs and the World Bank, respectively.

“These projections are driven by expectations of increased global supply, moderating demand, and rising inventories. Aligning Nigeria’s benchmark closer to $60/barrel would strengthen the MTEF’s resilience,” he said.

Yusuf said the benchmark exchange rate of ₦1,540/$ acknowledged likely liquidity pressures arising from the 2026 election cycle and broader macroeconomic dynamics. 

“This assumption provides a realistic basis for planning around: FX-linked capital projects, Contract price variations, Imported input costs and Broader implementation risks.

“Although a weaker naira increases project costs, it simultaneously boosts naira-denominated revenues. This benchmark, therefore, provides a credible basis for fiscal planning,” said Yusuf.

On growth projection and revenue outlook, the expert said the GDP growth projection of 4.68%, though optimistic, remained largely aspirational and did not materially distort fiscal planning.

He stated that more importantly, the 2026 revenue projection of ₦34.33 trillion—a 16% reduction from the ₦36.35 trillion projected for 2025—reflected a more grounded assessment of Nigeria’s revenue conditions despite ongoing tax and administrative reforms, adding that the downward adjustment was a welcome sign of improved fiscal prudence.

Yusuf also raised concern on debt sustainability in the MTEF, which projected and allocated ₦15.91 trillion to debt service in 2026, representing 46% of projected revenue. 

He said this level of debt-service commitment significantly limits fiscal space for infrastructure investment, social sector spending and security and stabilisation programmes.

He was emphatic that Nigeria’s rising debt trajectory underscored the urgent need for a renewed focus on debt sustainability, stronger domestic revenue mobilisation and greater efficiency, cost-effectiveness, and accountability in public expenditure.